There has been no follow through on the small break lower in this pair yesterday and the chart looks more likely to break upwards through the barrier than down. What happens after the barrier breaks is an open question – we could see stops triggered leading to a spike up or a cascading move up. I already had a hard stop at 100.02 but have decided to close this now and save myself 20 pips.
Closed UJ short at 99.74, -29 pips.
p.s. As per my reasoning, I should in fact go long, but I prefer to wait for confirmation. Perhaps a limit long order at 100.05 might be a good idea? I’ll wait until after the BoJ press conference.