Weekly & Monthly Review 3 Aug – another good week

Saturday, 3 August.

It started off slow, but ended with a bang. A huge week for data and event risk. Such periods usually are very slow in the lead-up to the events, and then volatility explodes. Last week was more special because the multiple events were staggered across 3 days and each succeeding event had the potential to reverse the directions of the major pairs. I was fortunate that I only suffered reversals once, in GU and AU. Flipping at the time of the reversals has allowed me to recover all of the losses with potential for more gains in the coming week.

Closing levels for open orders:

USDJPY = 98.87 (+56 pips)

GBPUSD = 1.5285 (+67 pips)

Total weekly gains for all the 5 pairs:

EU: +82 pips (2 trades)

EJ: 0 (no trades)

UJ: +1 pip (2 trades), + open trade +56 pips.

GU: -100 pips (3 trades), + open trade +67 pips.

AU: +132 pips (2 trades)

Looking back on the week, I can see that I missed out on the gains in UJ in the early part of the week. The system had given a long signal which I did not take due to the event risk. That trade, if taken, would have been a roller coaster as it rose for 3 sessions, then dropped for the next 2 sessions, almost touching the SL level, after which it started rising slowly. The sell signal came after the NFP and would have resulted in a gain of less than 50 pips. So it was a good decision not to trade this pair during the data-heavy week. EURJPY presented a similar situation and I did not trade that pair at all.

For the month of July, each pair’s results are as follows. Note that this month’s results reflect the system rules as applied by me, so they are absolutely real, practical results, including the opportunities missed or half-missed due to lifestyle hurdles like sleep, family responsibilities, etc; and also incorporating my decision not to trade when I felt the risk was too high, eg the past week of heavy data. The results are presented in pips and $$ terms based on my rule of risking 10% of each pair’s equity per trade.

EU: +267 pips, +49%

EJ: +492 pips, +60.2%

UJ: +738 pips, +266% (including open trade)

GU: +748 pips, +245% (including open trade)

AU: +422 pips, +97.6%

Combined Account (all pairs added together) = +193.5% in $$ terms.

Going forward:

I am closing the ‘system’ account. The system account purpose has been as a live test of my system rules. It has served me very well by i) demonstrating how effective my trading rules are, and ii) Helping me develop the discipline to follow the system rules even when it seems counter-intuitive. Heck, for the kind of results that the system gets I’m happy to throw out everything else I’ve ever learned! 🙂

From next week I will start with a fresh account of only $10k. I am now confident of my ability to trade my system rules as faithfully as real-life constraints will allow. Therefore there will be only one account to track – the real account, which will also be the system trades account. My first benchmark for this new account will be to reach $50k on a month closing basis. The next major milestone will be $100k.  The layout for the new worksheet will be a little different as it will also include the withdrawals I make once the account is past $50k.

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