Conflicting signals – closing all positions

15.43 gmt

I am getting conflicting signals from the different charts and the picture is not very clear. I am therefore following one of the oldest maxims in trading: When in doubt, get out!

Closed USDJPY long at 99.74, +24 pips

Closed EURJPY at 131.79, +49 pips

Closed short GBPUSD at 1.5360, -14 pips.

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2 thoughts on “Conflicting signals – closing all positions

  1. FungCL

    Hi Zen, after following your trade for two weeks, I find that most of the time, some of your really good picks exceed 100 pips but only to be reversed later and then you will close the trade at a lower profit.

    In that case, why not you target to close trades that exceed 100 pips? That I think will improve on your overall profit.

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    1. ZenFXTrader

      Yes Fung, I see that all the time. I tend to give up 50 – 100 pips if counted from the extreme end of the move to where I eventually get out. The philosophy is a) I do not try to predict the top or the bottom & b) a 100 pip profit in place of a 150 pip profit or 20 pips instead of 60 pips profit is still pretty good. Profit is profit, it will add up. I am aiming for ‘consistent’ profits, not simply large profits. When a pair is 150 pips profit, one can’t (usually) tell if it will reverse there or continue further and give us 300 pips profit tomorrow! In my testing I found that getting out too early, at the first bounce or first sign of consolidation actually makes me lose a lot more of potential profits. Hence my rules tell me to stay in and only reverse when all the chart factors confirm that a short-term top or bottom has been reached. In the past few months I have experimented with one variation of this rule, whereby I get out and flip when I recognize a very strong support or resistance, eg a confluence of previous high/low + major Fibo level + major psycho level + major daily MA. This works very well, so I will do it more often, but it does involve discretion in recognising a major support/resistance.

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