Short USDJPY @ 102.26, SL 102.82

4.03 bst

The yen pairs are in a tricky phase right now. They have come a long way in a short time and have a lot of bullish momentum. However, there will be a correction at some point, and it will be  big correction simply because the rise has been so far. But is this the correction? What I’d like to see is a clean break of the up-trend line on the 4 hrly chart in USDJPY which is today at around 101.70. This was broken but re-taken immediately yesterday. If we get a 4hr close below that, then I’m pretty confident we’ll see 100 and likely below 100 soon. Overall the probability of a move lower is greater than a move up.

EURJPY is even more difficult as EURUSD is showing strength as USDJPY weakens. Even so, the risk is that EJ follows UJ lower.

I have gone short as follows:

Short $20/pip USDJPY at 102.26, SL at 102.82.

 

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