12 May 2013
The week just past has been a bumper week for me: account is up +69% for the week (and the month so far as this is the first week of May). In the past I’ve usually had a great week followed by 2-3 weeks where I give back to the market a large part of my profits. This month I am aiming to keep most of my winnings, having learnt from analysing my past mistakes. After a big move in one direction markets often go sideways and chop around for a while and that is what produces a high % of losses for me even when I trade according to my rules. I have tweaked my rules somewhat and hope that will help me avoid losses.
A worksheet of my trades and account performance for the month is attached, and will also be in the ‘Account Performance’ page.
A post-mortem of my trades shows that I made significant losses in 2 trades: i) The EURJPY short early in the week at 129.42, which was promptly reversed in the next session and cost me 51 pips. Can’t do much about such a loss – an immediate reversal always results in a loss for me. However, I have to accept such reversals as a cost of my trading system – one can’t expect a perfect 100% system. The second was a 5 pip loss in the AUDUSD when the AUD jobs data came out. That was also an instant reversal of the prior candle and went past my stop. But my system had picked the right direction as the entire AUD gain was wiped out in the following 2 sessions and in fact the AUD dropped like a stone on Thursday and Friday. Again, the trade was okay although the outcome was not the best.
The other thing is that I lost about 50 pips in each of the GU and EU shorts when I closed them on Thursday at strong support (and also because I wanted to sleep). The NY afternoon session then broke the strong supports and both pairs plumbed new lows. My system rules would have kept me in the trades. This is the difficulty of having rules optimized for different kinds of markets – how will I know in advance if this will be the end of range trading, or conversely, the end of a trending market?
Nevertheless, I think trading was good overall, and the results are a reasonable outcome.
I don’t forget that I am not even halfway up the big mountain I am climbing – the account has got to reach above $100,000 before I can congratulate myself.