Open Trades commentary

7.00 bst

I made some comforting pips in the yen pairs today, but the flip side is that I seem to have missed a further big move. The yen train hardly stops! The pairs are now at 94.65 and 121.38! Still, I prefer to see the glass half full. šŸ™‚

Edit 7.04: USDJPY has powered through another resistance; the bullish momentum looks very strong and I have decided to enter long again. See the trade post for details.

7.12:

I have one open trade, long AUDUSD at 1.0483. My planned stop was 1.0440, and the pair is currently around 1.0442, having gone below 1.0440 briefly. This is proving a real conundrum. Technically, the action looks somewhat bearish. We know that there is heavy barrier protection at the 1.05 level, which is the reason for the bearish bias in the short term. However, on the bigger picture, we have seen that AUDUSD is extremely well supported around 1.04 / 1.0380. The fundamentals also argue for a floor below this pair. Another factor is that the AUDUSD has not performed as well as other pairs in my system testing especially since last October. Therefore the system rules carry less weight here.

All these factors add up to leaving the AUDUSD long trade intact. This is a finely balanced decision. I am conscious of my tendency to ‘rationalize’ my wrong decisions. With all of that taken into account, I still feel staying long AUDUSD is not a big risk here.

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