This week has been horrible for me, absolutely horrible. I am left with only 10% of my starting balance, an amount hardly worth trading with. I might have more to write tomorrow; for now I just want to make some observations of the trades today.
I went long EJ and UJ when my system had just indicated a short. That was a mistake but I had decided to try something other than a system trade. I planned to trade off the Kuroda press conference which was scheduled for 6pm Tokyo time. Although there was no news that I could find, the price action at around 6pm Tokyo looked supporting yen weakness, and I went long. Not having access to professional trading terminals like Reuters or Bloomberg, I was trading blind. I happened to catch the precise tops in EURJPY and USDJPY! The press conference in fact happened more than an hour later by which time the pairs had dropped 50 pips and 35 pips respectively. This is a reminder how access to up-to-date news can help a trader, and lack of this makes a trader’s life so much harder.
Another thought is that sometimes the markets, or the circumstances in life are such that it is better to simply not trade. I had this feeling since about mid-February that I should take a break and not trade at all for about a month. Either I set a machine to trade as per my system rules, or if I am personally trading, then I must take some time off markets every now and then.
I am at a cross-roads and have to think carefully what I should do next. Recovering from this debacle is such a huge task that I don’t feel I have the mental and emotional energy to take it on. I’ll take some time off trading (should have done this after Monday ;-( and think about my options.