The problem with my charting (caused by a Java security flaw) has been resolved and I’m back online on my own beloved MacBook. There were a few hours when I thought I’d lost all my mail, pictures, music, and preferences, and it was scary to think about it. I have continuous backup and was eventually able to recover from the backup, but being without the computer even for a day is not something I look forward to. I’ll make some plans to have an alternative handy if my main system ever goes kaput again.
Right now I’m awaiting the RBA decision on AUD rates in about half an hour. The pair is behaving interestingly. There is a huge battle going on between the bulls and bears in this pair for the past year, and the range of that battle has narrowed down to essentially 1.035 – 1.05. Whoever wins this battle, the resulting move will be big. To me it looks like the bears will win the first round and drive the pair down to around 95. Will be an interesting ride. Problem is, we can’t be sure when the ride begins, and by the time we realise it has begun, the move might already be a couple of 100 pips!
With the yen pairs, I reckon we are at least in a minor correction, if not a deep correction. The pairs have bounced off the first 50% Fibo level (91.96 in USDJPY, the low today was 91.97!) but the bounce has already fizzled out, so I expect further lows in the net few sessions.